Settlement & Market Closure
Moonlander’s Prediction Market employs clear and transparent rules to determine when a market closes and how all open positions are settled. These mechanisms are designed to ensure fairness for all participants and provide you with predictable market outcomes.
Here are the two ways of how markets can close:
Scheduled Expiry
Each market on Moonlander has a specific, pre-determined closure time. This time is always clearly displayed within the market’s interface. When the scheduled time arrives, the market automatically closes, and the positions will be settled based on the latest price at expiry.
Price Threshold with Time Window
Markets can also close automatically before their scheduled expiry if the aggregated market price for a specific outcome crosses and then sustains a defined threshold.
How it works: If the price for an outcome goes above a certain high threshold (e.g., >0.9, meaning a strong consensus for “probability of the event occuring”) or below a certain low threshold (e.g., <0.1, meaning a strong consensus for “probability of the event not occuring”), and this price holds for a set period (e.g., 15 minutes), the market will be closed.
Settlement price: It’s important to note that when a market closes due to a price threshold being reached, all positions are settled at that specific threshold price (e.g. 0.9 or 0.1), not the most recent aggregated price at the exact moment of closure. Slippage will also apply dynamically based on platform parameters meaning the final effective execution price may vary slightly depending on market conditions and liquidity at settlement.
Note: All closure rules and outcomes are clearly displayed in the UI with real-time status updates.
Scenario/Example
Scheduled Expiry
Market: “Oscar Piastri will be the F1 Drivers Champion of 2025” (UTC time).
Expiry: 2025-12-07 12:00:00 UTC.
At exactly 2025-12-07 12:00:00 UTC, the market closes regardless of price movement in the underlying prediction markets afterward.
All existing positions will be closed at the latest aggregated price.
Why it matters:
Some prediction markets may resolve in later dates due to resolution efforts or dispute. However, that does not affect the settlement of the leveraged market on our platform.
Price Threshold with Time Window
Market: “ETH will reach $5,000 before 1st January 2026” (UTC).
Scheduled expiry: 1st January 2026 at 23:59 UTC.
Thresholds:
Upper threshold: $0.95 (very likely “Yes”).
Lower threshold: $0.05 (very likely “No”).
Time window: 30 minutes sustained.
Scenario A — Early Closure Triggered
On 1st January 2026 at 14:00 UTC, the aggregated price rises above 0.9.
The price stays above $0.95 until 14:30 UTC (30 minutes).
Market will be closed at 14:30 UTC.
All positions settle at $0.95, not at the exact latest price (e.g. $0.97).
Even if the market would have gone to 0.95 later, everyone’s “Long” positions settle at 0.9 since the threshold price and time window have been triggered and sustained.
Scenario B — Temporary Spike (No Closure)
Price spikes to $0.97 but drops back to $0.85 after 15 minutes.
No market closure since the condition wasn’t sustained for the full 30 minutes.
The market remains open until either another sustained trigger or scheduled expiry.
FAQ: Settlement & Position Management Examples
Scheduled expiry
Market closes automatically at the predefined expiry time using the latest aggregated price.
Market “BTC will reach $130K by Friday” closes on Friday at 23:59 UTC; Position settles at closing price.
Price threshold w/ time window
If the price crosses a threshold (e.g., >0.9 or <0.1) and stays there for the set minutes (e.g. 30 mins), the market closes at that threshold price.
Price threshold at $0.9 (30 mins time window), the market price reached $0.9 for 30 mins → the market closes; all positions settle at $0.9.
Price threshold limits caps TP/SL and limit order price
If the price threshold is set to >0.9 and <0.1 for 30 mins, the user can only set TP/SL and limit order within that price range.
Price threshold at >0.9 and <$0.1 (30 mins time window), the user cannot set SL or order price at 0.05.
Threshold crossed shortly before expiry
Market closed by scheduled expiry using the latest aggregated price.
Price threshold at $0.9 (30 mins time window), the market price reached $0.95 for 5 mins while the time reached expiry timestamp → the market settles at $0.9 at expiry time.
Market price exceeds threshold range (e.g. outside 0.1–0.9)
The system temporarily disables the ability to open new positions in that market. Existing positions remain open until settlement or market closure.
If the price threshold reaches 0.92, users can no longer open new positions, but existing traders continue holding until the market settles.
Closure before minimum holding elapsed
Market closure overrides individual hold timers; all positions force-settled at closure price.
Trader opens a position 3 mins before closure → position still settled at market closure price.
Liquidation before minimum holding elapsed
Liquidation executes instantly upon margin breach; independent of holding rules.
Price drops to liquidation level after 1 min → position liquidated immediately.
TP/SL before minimum holding elapsed
TP/SL always executes immediately, even during the minimum hold period.
TP at 0.8 → price hits 0.8 → closes even though minimum hold period = 10 min.
Edit TP/SL or add collateral
Editing TP/SL or collateral is allowed anytime; doesn’t reset the minimum holding timer.
Adds collateral + adjusts TP → minimum holding timer unaffected.
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