> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.moonlander.trade/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.moonlander.trade/how-to-use/trading/prediction-markets/prediction-market-format.md).

# Prediction Market Format

Each prediction market has a binary outcome. For example: "BTC will reach $150,000 by 2026".<br>

Users can open positions in two directions:

* **Long Position:** Betting on the probability of the event increasing (similar to a "YES" probability rising or "NO" falling on Polymarket).
* **Short Position:** Betting on the probability of the event decreasing (similar to a "NO" probability rising or "YES" falling on Polymarket).

Price represents the market-implied probability of the event. For example, if the current price is $0.70, this indicates that the market collectively assigns a 70% likelihood to the event occurring..<br>

The price always ranges between $0.001 and $0.999. A price closer to $0.999 indicates a higher perceived probability of the event happening, while a price closer to $0.001 indicates a lower perceived probability.<br>

If you are long on the event, you expect the price to move closer to $0.999. If you are short, you expect it to move closer to $0.001.

**Example:** A user believes the probability of "U.S. Strategic BTC Reserve purchases new BTCs" is underestimated.

The current price is $0.65 (65% probability).

A user opens a long position with 10 USDC at 10x leverage.

If the price rises to $0.80 (80% probability),&#x20;

Profit = (current price - entry price) x position size = ($0.80 - $0.65) x 100 = $15<br>